FREE WHITEWATER

City, Daily Bread, Development, Economics, Free Markets, Housing

Daily Bread for 4.21.26: A Bit About Markets and Dynamism

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Good morning.

Tuesday in Whitewater will be partly sunny with a high of 71. Sunrise is 6:03 and sunset is 7:44 for 13 hours 41 minutes of daytime. The moon is a waxing crescent with 22 percent of its visible disk illuminated.

The Whitewater Forward Design Workshop Open House is open from 4:30-6:30 PM and the Whitewater Common Council meets at 6 PM.

On this day in 753 BC, Romulus is traditionally said to have founded Rome.

Last night, a clear majority of the Whitewater Common Council voted to support the Stonehaven development project to bring fourteen owner-occupied, single-family homes to Whitewater. This libertarian blogger supported the proposal. See The Stonehaven Single-Family Home Project Merits Support.

A city that has had an inadequate single-family home market (despite a desire for single-family homes) is a poorly functioning market. That’s disappointing, yet if one does not acknowledge the disappointment, one cannot address it. Of course, one would prefer that these market desires be fulfilled only through the private market. For Whitewater, however, one quickly sees the gap between need or desire and effective demand. See Affordability Discussions Define a Key Component of Economic Demand.

Whitewater, through government policies over the last generation (principally, but not exclusively, through zoning liberalization) improved opportunities for student-rental operators, but made no similarly vigorous effort in the last decade to advance single-family residences. Past policymakers favored some properties over others. Liberalization for some residences, for example, was only reasonable with commensurate liberalization (or support of some kind) for other types of housing. Instead, for new residential construction these recent years, it’s been not here, not there, not this, not that.

(Indeed, those who now tout their private-sector accomplishments might wish to remember that it was the presence of a publicly–funded university that fueled those accomplishments.)

It’s simply false to say that past economic activity in Whitewater occurred in a wholly free market of purely private transactions. Standing pat on uneven ground leaves this community tilting to one side — insisting on the same way forever leaves Whitewater with a distorted market. ‘The same way forever’ is characteristic of stagnant communities; ‘the same way forever’ preserves past misjudgments.

What free markets achieve (especially if uninhibited) is a dynamic, spontaneous order. They are by their nature creative, often surprisingly so. They offer within this city thousands of interactions between people each day, unregulated and unmediated.

What, then, to do when government-favored activity in one sector (student-rental properties) has regrettably crowded out and limited possibilities for another vital sector (single-family homes or other kinds of rental property)? In conditions of past market distortion, Whitewater will have to make her way as best she can to reform and then bolster opportunities for a less slanted market. Those who don’t want this now, shouldn’t have advanced so much of only that then.

Stonehaven is a creative solution that will begin to redress past imbalances.

There’s something telling and surprising when a few residents (mostly the same few) contend that they’ve never heard of solutions like this. Perhaps they haven’t, but then Whitewater is more than the same few people, and Wisconsin is more than the same few people, and America is more than the same few people. We are a dynamic and creative society. All around us, one finds our society’s ingenuity, if only one would look.

It is through necessitated creativity now that Whitewater will find her way to a more balanced residential market.

This was a sound, solid decision for our city.

_____

Upcoming posts (in no decided order): The Regents, Claims of Legacy, a Particular Species of Democrat, a Whitewater Comparative Analysis, Whitewater’s Workforce, ‘What Ails, What Heals’ Reviewed, and Outcome Driven Opposition.

Feisty house cat faces two bears:

Two bears showed up, and Scooter the cat said “absolutely not.”

City, Daily Bread, Housing

Daily Bread for 4.20.26: The Stonehaven Single-Family Home Project Merits Support

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Good morning.

Monday in Whitewater will be sunny with a high of 53. Sunrise is 6:05 and sunset is 7:43 for 13 hours 38 minutes of daytime. The moon is a waxing crescent with 13.6 percent of its visible disk illuminated.

The Whitewater Common Council meets at 6 PM and the Library Board at 6:30 PM.

On this day in 1836, Congress passes an act creating the Wisconsin Territory (an act that would go into effect on July 3 of that year).

Whitewater, like other communities, has controversies over housing. Also like other communities — but often with greater intensity here in town — some of the claims about a housing proposal will be misguided.

The Whitewater Common Council will consider tonight the Stonehaven proposal for fourteen, owner-occupied, single-family homes on land that now sits vacant, as it has remained for so many years.

The question for tonight’s session: Can the Whitewater Common Council, after months of the proposal’s approval at several prior public meetings, craft with the project’s developer a plan to bring these owner-occupied, single-family homes to Whitewater?

Some of the claims about the Stonehaven project are the result of inaccurate information. A few of the claims made against the project, notably at meetings in February, have been oddly, even recklessly, overwrought.1 (There’s no surprise in this state of affairs. Those watching the months of meetings and discussions about the project would know that some of the opposition to the project has been outcome-driven: a series of claims at each moment, often disconnected from each other, simply designed to prevent these single-family homes by hook or crook.2)

A review of the council packet for tonight’s meeting provides answers to questions about the project. See City of Whitewater, Common Council Meeting Packet, Apr. 20, 2026.

1. Open, Public Consideration. Whitewater’s public bodies have considered and advanced this project previously following several open-session discussions:

On August 19, 2025, the Common Council approved the sale of two Community Development Authority owned parcels to Stonehaven Development. On December 18, 2025, the CDA reviewed and recommended the proposed project. On February 17, 2026, the Whitewater Common Council approved requested rezoning on these properties. On March 19, 2026, the CDA then recommended the development agreement to the Common Council for approval. On April 9, 2026, the Common Council considered the development agreement, and again tonight the development agreement is before the city in a public meeting.

There’s no secret here; this has been a recorded public process, repeatedly and thoroughly reviewed. Whitewater’s not Roswell, New Mexico: there’s no reason to insinuate that there’s a plot to conceal the Stonehaven proposal’s details as though officials were concealing the bodies of tiny extraterrestrials.3

2. The Interest Rate. It’s false to contend that tonight’s meeting aims to set a zero-interest rate for the project: the entire purpose of tonight’s meeting was, following a decision by the council on April 9, to seek a different solution. See Video beginning at 3:10:06, Whitewater Common Council, April 9, 2026. Anyone who had followed the discussion on April 9 would know this.

To contend otherwise after April 9 would be either a misunderstanding or an intentional distortion of the actions and deliberations of the Whitewater Common Council.

3. Financial Review. Ehlers, an independent, third-party financial advising firm, has reviewed this project thoroughly. See Common Council Meeting Packet, Apr. 20, 2026, at 71-86.

This is an incremental plan, designed as a revolving fund in which as homes are built in stages, the city is recompensed from the developer at each stage.

This is a well-reviewed proposal.

4. Overcoming Past Market Failures. This libertarian blogger is, by the very nature of being libertarian, a free-market man. And yet, and yet, as I wrote recently on the nature of economic demand, there are instances, undeniably, of free-market failure:

Nothing about correctly noting the vast powers of free markets for efficient coordination (superior both morally and practically to command schemes) denies that market action depends on effective demand. No rational economic arrangement runs on magic.

Whitewater is a community that, from the Great Recession through to this present decade (that is, 2007-2020) has suffered from market inadequacies of owner-occupied, single-family housing. I wish it were otherwise, and yet intellectual honesty compels one to see a problem clearly.

Whitewater’s student rental operators benefitted greatly during this time, but ordinary residents seeking single-family homes were left (far) behind. Policymakers of the last decade should have addressed these needs but did not. The only worse outcome than too few single-family homes over the last twenty years would be too few single-family homes for the next ten.

One returns to this question for the Whitewater Common Council: In a city of nearly sixteen thousand, where there’s a lack of adequate homes, can a plan to bring about even fourteen, single-family owner-occupied homes at a reasonable rate be crafted? Our council members easily possess the ability to arrive at a deal for these needed homes. If even this cannot be done — and of course it can reasonably and sensibly be done — then nothing can be done in this beleaguered market with an under-supply of owner-occupied, single-family houses.

A deal with this private developer can — and should — be reached tonight.

The full, thorough (indeed exhaustive) agenda packet for the session tonight appears below:

MEET-Packet-a58fc668b52f4d15b7d3e0772b716d94Download

_____

  1. See Empty Allegations Against a Development Project, FREE WHITEWATER, Feb. 12, 2026. ↩︎
  2. Ahab pursued a whale with less fervor. Some pursuers, fictional or real, lose perspective in their pursuits. ↩︎
  3. It’s improbable that any bodies of tiny extraterrestrials were found in 1947 at Roswell. It would, however, be quite something if a few living creatures from another world landed in Whitewater. After a thousand other questions, someone might then ask: So, how do you manage social media misinformation on your planet? ↩︎

Upcoming posts (in no decided order): The Regents, Claims of Legacy, a Particular Species of Democrat, a Whitewater Comparative Analysis, Whitewater’s Workforce, ‘What Ails, What Heals’ Reviewed, and Outcome Driven Opposition.

America, Daily Bread, Economy

Daily Bread for 4.19.26: Consumer Sentiment’s Steep Decline Charted

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Good morning.

Sunday in Whitewater will be windy with a high of 45. Sunrise is 6:06 and sunset is 7:41 for 13 hours 35 minutes of daytime. The moon is a waxing crescent with 6.6 percent of its visible disk illuminated.

On this day in 1775, the Revolutionary War begins during the Battles of Lexington and Concord with a victory for American minutemen and other militia over British forces, later referred to as the “shot heard round the world.”

Charles Franklin, director of the Marquette Law School Poll, writes in PollsAndVotes about the steep drop in consumer sentiment from the first Trump administration to the second:

The comparison of consumer sentiment in the first Trump administration and in the second is the point of this post. The chart highlights the first term up to the 2018 midterms and the second term so far. The average sentiment in the first 23 months of term 1 was 97.5. The average so far in term 2 is 55.5, with the most recent reading at 47.6. That is a 42 point drop from average to average and a 49.9 point drop from average to current reading.

To state the obvious: economic sentiment was a tremendous advantage in the first Trump term and is a tremendous burden in the second.

Sentiment plummeted when the Covid pandemic arrived in early 2020, then began to recover into 2021 before the spike in inflation in the second half of 2021 drove sentiment to the then all-time low of 50 in June 2022. Sentiment recovered somewhat through most of the 2nd half of the Biden administration though it dipped in the run-up to the 2024 election. That persistent negative view of the economy was a constant weight on Biden’s support and ultimately on Harris’ vote.

During Trump’s second term the trend has been sharply down from a peak of 74.0 in December 2024 immediately after his reelection, to 64.7 in the first month of the new term with irregular month to month movements and an overall downward trend.

The low consumer sentiment index means the economy is virtually guaranteed to remain the top concern for voters, and therefore the issue all candidates have to discuss (and claim to fix, with more or less persuasiveness). Above all, this economic gloom will be the atmosphere of the election.

See Charles Franklin, Second Term Worse Than the First, PollsAndVotes, April 10, 2026.

Stark, very stark. While I’ve followed reporting on the recent plunge in consumer sentiment, the comparison via chart of 2017-2021 to 2025-2026 shows how sour consumers sentiment has become.

Upcoming posts (in no decided order): The Regents, Claims of Legacy, a Particular Species of Democrat, a Whitewater Comparative Analysis, Whitewater’s Workforce, ‘What Ails, What Heals’ Reviewed, and Outcome Driven Opposition.

There are happy times somewhere — International Kite Festival kicks off in Berck-sur-Mer on French Atlantic coast:

Hundreds of participants are expected from all over the world for the week-long event that started on April 18 and ends on April 26. Hundreds of kites will be flying throughout the week on the windy beaches of Berck.

City, Climate, Daily Bread, Science/Nature, Weather, Wisconsin

Daily Bread for 4.18.26: Wisconsin’s Changing Weather

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Good morning.

Saturday in Whitewater will be windy with a high of 62. Sunrise is 6:08 and sunset is 7:40 for 13 hours 32 minutes of daytime. The moon is a waxing crescent with 1.9 percent of its visible disk illuminated.

On this day in 1938, Superman debuts in Action Comics #1 (cover dated June 1938).

Our weather is changing because the state’s climate is changing:

On the same day some Wisconsin residents were evacuating their homes due to flooding and others were cleaning up from widespread storms and tornadoes, researchers predicted the state’s climate will continue to grow warmer and wetter with more frequent and intense storms.

Those are among findings of the 2026 report from the Wisconsin Initiative on Climate Change Impacts, or WICCI. The initiative’s co-directors provided an overview of the latest assessment to the Natural Resources Board on Wednesday.

State Climatologist Steve Vavrus, co-director of WICCI, noted average temperatures in Wisconsin have risen about 3 degrees Fahrenheit since the 1950s. The report found the last two decades were the warmest on record, and the state has also seen a 17 percent increase in annual precipitation.

Vavrus said the 2010s were the wettest decade on record with the most extreme weather in the state’s history. During that period, more than 20 daily rainfalls qualified as a 100-year storm, or a storm that has a 1 percent chance of occurring in any given year.

“Thus far, six years through the 2020s, we’re on pace to have the warmest decade on record. And we already know that 2024 was the warmest year in Wisconsin’s history,” Vavrus said, noting it was also the hottest year recorded in the nation and worldwide.

The report found a warmer climate has led to “unusually pronounced” extreme weather in recent years. And that’s resulted in rising costs. Between 1980 and 2024, Wisconsin has been affected by 63 weather and climate disasters that each exceeded $1 billion in losses.

See Danielle Kaeding, Wisconsin will see warmer, wetter weather — and more extremes, report finds, Wisconsin Public Radio, April 16, 2026.

Upcoming posts (in no decided order): The Regents, Claims of Legacy, a Particular Species of Democrat, a Whitewater Comparative Analysis, Whitewater’s Workforce, ‘What Ails, What Heals’ Reviewed.

This robot hand detaches and walks by itself:

Human hands are incredibly dexterous tools — but they have their limits. They are asymmetric, they only have a single thumb, and fundamentally, they’re connected to our arms. But none of that poses a problem for this robot claw. Its symmetrical design means it can seamlessly approach different tasks without having to twist to find the right angle, six fingers mean the design can juggle multiple objects at the same time and, if needed, it can simply leave its arm behind, perfect for dangerous or hard-to-reach places. Read the paper: https://www.nature.com/articles/s4146…

City, Daily Bread, Economics, Economy, Excuses and Rationalizations, Free Markets, Housing, Special Interests

Daily Bread for 4.17.26: Affordability Discussions Define a Key Component of Economic Demand

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Good morning.

Friday in Whitewater will see evening thunderstorms with a high of 74. Sunrise is 6:10 and sunset is 7:39 for 13 hours 29 minutes of daytime. It’s a new moon today.

On this day in 1970, the damaged Apollo 13 spacecraft returns to Earth safely.

People talk about supply & demand, but economic demand is often misunderstood. Recent affordability discussions are regrettable (as they point to a lack of purchasing power for ordinary items). Those fraught discussions, however, do make clear that economic demand is more than mere need or desire. Casually invoking the concepts of supply and demand, when they’re undefined, leaves state and local policy discussions either vacuous or patently false.

Economic demand exists only when there is both need or desire for a good and the ability to pay for that good. This understanding has been foundational to economics for centuries. Consider Smith from Wealth of Nations, describing this as ‘effectual demand’:

The market price of every particular commodity is regulated by the proportion between the quantity which is actually brought to market, and the demand of those who are willing to pay the natural price of the commodity, or the whole value of the rent, labour, and profit, which must be paid in order to bring it thither. Such people may be called the effectual demanders, and their demand the effectual demand; since it may be sufficient to effectuate the bringing of the commodity to market. It is different from the absolute demand. A very poor man may be said in some sense to have a demand for a coach and six; he might like to have it; but his demand is not an effectual demand, as the commodity can never be brought to market in order to satisfy it.

(Emphasis added.) See Adam Smith, An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations bk. I, ch. VII, “Of the Natural and Market Price of Commodities,” (1776).

Those looking for a more modern citation will find it in any number of respected, contemporary economic texts. See, e.g., Hal R. Varian, Intermediate Microeconomics: A Modern Approach ch. 1 & ch. 5–6 (8th ed. 2010).

This libertarian blogger, needless to say, believes free markets of voluntary exchange, under conditions of private property and limited government, best preserve liberty while coordinating economic activity efficiently.

In policy debates — over food, housing, childcare, or healthcare — people often say that ‘there’s a huge demand.’ Some of these debates are, in fact, about need (food, clothing, or shelter) where a few have inadequate purchasing power.

And so, and so, if someone contends that the satisfaction of a desire is a matter for free markets, then it’s necessary to ask: do those with that desire have purchasing power? Nothing about correctly noting the vast powers of free markets for efficient coordination (superior both morally and practically to command schemes) denies that market action depends on effective demand. No rational economic arrangement runs on magic.

Someone committed to free market policies as the best arrangement for most occasions should — and to be honest must — consider how to address inadequate purchasing power of a few for basic needs. How have voluntary transactions in conditions of private property been obstructed from supplying more people with purchasing power for basic needs, and are there cases in which even generally superior free markets yet struggle to increase individuals’ purchasing power?

Insisting that the need for food, clothing, or shelter for everyone in Whitewater will simply work itself out, regardless of any additional action — either private or public — is simply ludicrous. It’s obvious that there is more to do.

Opposition to every plan for housing, for example (not here, not there, not this way, not that way), won’t solve Whitewater’s housing affordability problems.

Upcoming posts (in no decided order): The Regents, Claims of Legacy, a Particular Species of Democrat, a Whitewater Comparative Analysis, and Whitewater’s Workforce.

South Korean pianist recreates himself as one-handed performer after paralyzing stroke:

When a major stroke paralyzed South Korean pianist Lee Hun’s right side in 2012, he first worried about whether he would ever walk again. Playing the piano wasn’t even a consideration.

Courts, Daily Bread, Elections, Politics, Trump, Wisconsin

Daily Bread for 4.16.26: Intrusive Politics Leads to Perpetual Politics

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Good morning.

Thursday in Whitewater will be partly sunny with a high of 69. Sunrise is 6:11 and sunset is 7:38 for 13 hours 27 minutes of daytime. The moon is a waning crescent with 1.3 percent of its visible disk illuminated.

The Whitewater School Board’s Calendar Committee meets at 4:30 PM and Whitewater’s Community Development Authority meets at 5:30 PM.

On this day in 1963, Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. writes his open letter from Birmingham Jail, sometimes known as “The Negro Is Your Brother,” while incarcerated in Birmingham, Alabama, for protesting against segregation.

This April saw the election of Judge Chris Taylor to the Wisconsin Supreme Court. She will take office this August. There will be another election for a seat on Wisconsin’s high court in April 2027. (Justice Ziegler has announced that she will not run for re-election.)

The campaign for the 2027 Wisconsin Supreme Court election has begun:

Barely a week after this year’s Wisconsin Supreme Court election, a candidate has entered the race for next year.

Clark County Judge Lyndsey Boon Brunette declared Thursday that she’ll run to replace outgoing Justice Annette Ziegler, who announced her retirement from the court in March.

In a video, Brunette highlighted her background as a former prosecutor and said she’d work to apply the law “fairly and equally.”

See Anya van Wagtendonk, Liberal Judge Lyndsey Brunette announces 2027 Wisconsin Supreme Court campaign, Wisconsin Public Radio, April 16, 2026.

Brunette is one of two circuit court judges in Clark County. Clark County is a small county east of Eau Claire, with its largest city (and county seat) at Neillsville. The county has voted Republican by large margins both in presidential elections and in the 2026 Wisconsin Supreme Court race. Although Judge Brunette is described as a liberal, she’s served on the bench in one of Wisconsin’s reddest counties.

There will be other candidates, likely both liberal and conservative.

If Judge Brunette’s announcement seems premature, then one hasn’t considered the conditions of ceaseless political conflict in which we now live.

Donald Trump isn’t the origin of our endless politics, but he is its leading exemplar: his evident character disorders compel him to inflict himself, and federal power, into every discussion (political, religious, cultural) that wanders through his cluttered mind.

Those who want a less intrusive and less incessant politics should start by voting for national leaders with well-ordered minds.

Upcoming posts (in no decided order): The Regents, Economic Demand, Claims of Legacy, a Particular Species of Democrat, a Whitewater Comparative Analysis, and Whitewater’s Workforce.

Robots crack jokes and grab items at Humanoid Robot Expo in Tokyo:

They can dance and they’re good at doing repetitive work we humans tire of, but the big question at the Tokyo Expo is when will the humanoids be able to look after us at home.

Daily Bread, Fair Maps, Gerrymandering, Gov. Evers, Legislature, Speaker Vos, Wisconsin

Daily Bread for 4.15.26: The Special Legislative Session Stays Open for Now

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Good morning.

Wednesday in Whitewater will be cloudy with evening showers and a high of 71. Sunrise is 6:13 and sunset is 7:37 for 13 hours 24 minutes of daytime. The moon is a waning crescent with 4.9 percent of its visible disk illuminated.

Whitewater’s Parks and Recreation Board meets at 5:30 PM.

On this day in 1922, U.S. Senator John B. Kendrick of Wyoming introduces a resolution calling for an investigation of a secret land deal, which leads to the discovery of the Teapot Dome scandal.

Gov. Evers convened a special session of the legislature to consider a solution to partisan gerrymandering. Legislative leaders left that session open, rather than gaveling it closed:

Evers announced his intention to call the special session in February, urging lawmakers to pass a constitutional amendment to ban partisan gerrymandering. He officially ordered the session in March. The constitutional amendment would include language to expressly prohibit drawing districts that give a disproportionate advantage or disadvantage to any political party. It would not lay out a new process for drawing maps.

Wisconsin adopted new legislative maps in 2024 following a state Supreme Court decision that found the previous maps were an unconstitutional gerrymander. The maps will be in place until 2030 when redistricting happens again. Unless there is a change to the current process, lawmakers will again be in charge of drawing new maps in 2031.

Ahead of the noon start time for the session, Assembly Speaker Robin Vos (R-Rochester) and Assembly Majority Leader Tyler August (R-Walworth) announced their intentions to leave the session open in a statement. They said they did so in “an effort to continue meaningful dialogue.”

“We view the Governor’s proposal as a first step on which to build a more comprehensive, workable solution for Wisconsin,” the leaders said, adding that they want a face-to-face meeting with Evers to discuss ideas. “We’re committed to a transparent and balanced solution that reflects the interest of all Wisconsinites.”

[…]

“In nearly every instance in which Republicans did not immediately gavel out of the governor’s special sessions, Republicans simply quietly gaveled out months later, largely to avoid press interest, bad headlines, and public scrutiny and accountability,” Evers’ spokesperson Britt Cudaback wrote in a social media post.

See Baylor Spears, Lawmakers leave conversations with Evers on gerrymandering, tax relief, school funding open, Wisconsin Examiner, April 15, 2026.

An earlier deal on gerrymandering, in which the WISGOP agreed to state legislative maps with less gerrymandering, came about only because the Legislature faced the immediate prospect of an adverse decision from the Wisconsin Supreme Court. The WISGOP accepted Evers’s proposal as an escape from the likelihood of an even less favorable outcome from Wisconsin’s high court. See Associated Press, Wisconsin’s Democratic governor signs his new state legislative maps into law (‘Republicans control the Legislature but approved the new lines to avoid a court fight’), Politico, February 19, 2024.

That’s not what’s at stake here. Gov. Evers is simply proposing a constitutional amendment prohibiting overly partisan maps. He isn’t proposing new district maps, but rather a requirement that whenever new maps are drawn, they be drawn in a generally nonpartisan way.

Perhaps that’s even too much for the WISGOP.

Upcoming posts (in no decided order): The Regents, Economic Demand, Claims of Legacy, a Particular Species of Democrat, a Whitewater Comparative Analysis, and Whitewater’s Workforce.

Wolf Steals a Bear Sign in Yellowstone National Park:

Click image for video

Agriculture, Daily Bread, Economy, War

Daily Bread for 4.14.26: Effects of Trade War and the Iran War Reach All the Way to Midwestern Soybean Farmers

by  • 

Good morning.

Tuesday in Whitewater will see scattered evening thundershowers with a high of 77. Sunrise is 6:14 and sunset is 7:36 for 13 hours 22 minutes of daytime. The moon is a waning crescent with 10.9 percent of its visible disk illuminated.

The Whitewater Innovation Center Advisory Panel meets at 8:30 AM and Whitewater’s Public Works Committee meets at 5:15 PM.

On this day in 1988, in a United Nations ceremony in Geneva, Switzerland, the Soviet Union signs an agreement including a pledge to withdraw its troops from Afghanistan.

Someone once said that “trade wars are good, and easy to win.” That same man later called the Iran War a “total and complete victory. 100 percent. No question about it.” (The rational among us do have, in fact, a few questions. See Peter Baker, Trump’s Erratic Behavior and Extreme Comments Revive Mental Health Debate, New York Times, April 13, 2026.)

The consequences of reckless and violent policies are so powerful that they reach from battlefields and boardrooms all the way back to Midwestern soybean famers:

Sweeping tariffs levied by President Donald Trump in April 2025 exacerbated a trade war with China, the top buyer of U.S. soybeans. China responded with retaliatory tariffs and effectively boycotted U.S. soybeans, cutting off a major export market for Midwest farmers and driving the price of soybeans even lower.

“When that was announced and soybean prices basically collapsed, if you could afford to hold on to your beans and wait for better times, you were OK,” said Mike Cerny, a soybean and winter wheat corn farmer in Sharon, Wisconsin. “If you had a mortgage due or payments due or cash flow needs and you had to sell at that point, you were taking it pretty rough.”

The U.S. and China eventually reached a deal in late 2025. Beijing committed to buying 12 million metric tons of soybeans by January and at least 25 million metric tons annually for the next three years. China has since met its initial soybean purchase goal, and the Trump administration also rolled out a $12 billion temporary aid package in December to boost farmers affected by the trade war.

But the damage is already done, experts and farmers say. While China’s renewed purchases and the federal payments are helping, it’s not enough to recover farmers’ losses. Even after federal assistance, farmers still lost almost $75 per harvested acre of soybeans in the 2025 crop, according to the American Soybean Association. And the trade war further pushed China toward competing soybean exporters, such as Brazil — accelerating a trend of declining U.S. soybean exports to China.

[…]

The war also caused gasoline and diesel prices to surge, causing further headaches for farmers. Oil prices dropped following the ceasefire announcement, but the war and the closure of the strait will have lasting impacts on farmers, said Seth Goldstein, a senior equity analyst at Morningstar, an investment research company. Facilities in the Middle East that are critical for exporting chemicals, oil and other commodities were damaged or destroyed during the war, and it will take time for supply chains to recover, he said.

See Eric Ferkenhoff (Lee Enterprises) and Josh Kelety (Associated Press), Already under financial pressure, Midwest soybean farmers are squeezed further by tariffs, Iran war, April 14, 2026.

A person of average foresight would have seen these risks and mitigated them. The best mitigation of trade wars and shooting wars? Well, that would be free trade and peaceful relations among nations.

Upcoming posts (in no decided order): The Regents, Economic Demand, Claims of Legacy, a Particular Species of Democrat, and a Whitewater Comparative Analysis.

Monster typhoon in the Pacific Ocean is bearing down on group of remote US islands:

A typhoon is taking aim at several remote U.S. islands in the Pacific Ocean. Super Typhoon Sinlaku is on track to barrel over the Northern Mariana Islands late Tuesday local time with widespread rain and flooding along with destructive winds that could cause lengthy power outages, the National Weather Service said.

Daily Bread, Early Childhood, Economy, Employment, Trump, WISGOP

Daily Bread for 4.13.26: Trump on Daycare

by  • 

Good morning.

Monday in Whitewater will be cloudy with a high of 74. Sunrise is 6:16 and sunset is 7:35 for 13 hours 19 minutes of daytime. The moon is a waning crescent with 18.4 percent of its visible disk illuminated.

The Whitewater School Board’s Policy Review Committee meets at 4:30 PM and Whitewater’s Plan & Architectural Review Commission meets at 6 PM.

On this day in 1970, at 10:08 PM EST, an oxygen tank aboard the Apollo 13 Service Module explodes, putting the crew in great danger and causing major damage to the Apollo command and service module (codenamed “Odyssey“)while en route to the moon.

By NASAScan by Kipp Teague – Apollo 13 Image Library (image link), Public Domain, Link.

Not long ago, as one of his many daily observations1 of life on this planet, Donald Trump complained that the federal government couldn’t afford to subsidize daycare, but that states should do so.

There’s more than one way to see daycare: as the (1) raising of children and simultaneously as (2) a cost of labor market participation that reduces the actual wages parents earn in the marketplace (or deters them from working altogether). This libertarian blogger has been clear on those few times that I’ve written about daycare that I lack the knowledge to design a daycare program. By contrast, I and many others can more easily grasp the economics of daycare within society.

Fundamentally, daycare is obviously significant both as child-rearing and for its economic consequences.

Here’s Trump speaking at a private White House luncheon:

“Don’t send any money for day care, because the United States can’t take care of day care. That has to be up to a state. We can’t take care of day care. We’re a big country. We have 50 states. We have all these other people. We’re fighting wars. We can’t take care of day care. You got to let a state take care of day care, and they should pay for it too.”

Later in his remarks, the president added that states would have to raise their taxes to pay for child care costs and that the federal government “could lower our taxes a little bit to them to make up” for it.

“It’s not possible for us to take care of day care, Medicaid, Medicare, all these individual things,” Trump said. “They can do it on a state basis. You can’t do it on a federal. We have to take care of one thing: military protection. We have to guard the country.”

See Eleanor Skelly, Alexandra Marquez, Tara Prindiville, and Sarah Dean, Trump says it’s ‘not possible’ for the U.S. to pay for Medicaid, Medicare and day care: ‘We’re fighting wars,’ NBC News, April 2, 2026.

Oh.

As it turns out, Mr. Trump concedes the significance of daycare2 when he answers that “You got to [sic] let a state take care of day care, and they should pay for it too.” Although he considers daycare less important than funding his expensive war in the Persian Gulf, Trump gives the game away twice over: that daycare is important and that it is so important that it should be state funded.

State funding would be justified, in my own way of thinking, only if there were no private alternatives and if that state funding produced a credible net economic gain. It’s possible, as barriers to workforce entry are serious concerns. A productive society offers its workers (and attracts potential workers to the labor market) as efficiently as possible.

The traditional libertarian arguments against government involvement may be found at the Cato Institute, Childcare, https://www.cato.org/publications/childcare. It’s worth noting that a libertarian prescription would “loosen state regulation [including zoning regulations] of childcare staffing and licensing and of home-based businesses, expand immigration, and reform federal childcare subsidies.” Prescriptions that include expanding immigration3 and reducing zoning regulations are sure to be non-starters for the MAGA movement. In our current environment, a truly private (and a sensible approach) that includes the free flow of labor into America isn’t going to happen.

The key point is that Trump, a restrictionist4 opposed to these private approaches, including free labor movement, has created conditions under which he is forced to concede that daycare should receive government funding. Someone should probably tell Tom Tiffany and the WISGOP.

_____

  1. Last night, Trump criticized Pope Leo. One doesn’t have to be Catholic to see that Trump is decomposing and decompensating before our eyes. The Catholic Church has outlasted men far more intelligent and accomplished than Trump. Napoleon, for example, who wasn’t anti-clerical as much as he was manipulative and controlling of all those around him, came and went while the Vatican is still going strong. (Napoleon could have been drunk all day and would yet have been more formidable than Trump.) ↩︎
  2. Trump, in his remarks, leaves unstated why he thinks daycare is important. It might be because he’s spent his life thinking about his own parenting, or because he’s considered studiously the cost of daycare to the workforce. No, and no again. One has to think there must, in Trump’s case, be a more plausible motivation in favor of subsidized daycare than his fatherly nature or grasp of economics. ↩︎
  3. Immigrant workers are as likely to care properly for children as any of the current residents walking around this town. ↩︎
  4. Only Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong Un are less libertarian than Donald Trump. ↩︎

Upcoming posts (in no decided order): The Regents, Economic Demand, Claims of Legacy, a Particular Species of Democrat, and a Whitewater Comparative Analysis.

Thousands celebrate in Hungary as Péter Magyar ends Viktor Orbán’s 16-year rule:

Daily Bread, Economy

Daily Bread for 4.12.26: The Key Number Behind Low Consumer Confidence

by  • 

Good morning.

Sunday in Whitewater will be rainy with a high of 72. Sunrise is 6:18 and sunset is 7:33 for 13 hours 15 minutes of daytime. The moon is a waning crescent with 27.4 percent of its visible disk illuminated.

On this day in 1945, the U.S. Ninth Army under General William H. Simpson crosses the Elbe River astride Magdeburg, and reaches Tangermünde — within 100 miles of Berlin.

If consumer sentiment is down — and it is — then what condition, what variable, explains the low level of consumer confidence? Writing in Strength in Numbers, G. Elliott Morris has a plausible theory:

I’ve got some data I’m going to dig into next week that speaks to this more directly. But for now, look at the following chart from the Michigan survey itself. It tracks the share of consumers who cite high prices as the reason they are personally struggling financially.

IMG_4660.jpeg

Before 2021, this number hovered near zero percent. Empirically speaking prices were a non-factor in how people viewed the state of the economy.

Then, everything changed. The share of adults citing high prices as a source of anxiety went exponential during the 2021-22 inflation spike and never came back down. It’s now above 50%, likely because of the gas prices spike from the war in Iran.

[…]

While inflation dropping from 8% to 3% reflects a “cooling off” of the economy, but evidently people still mostly just see high prices for things and get upset about that. And fair enough!

My theory is that price levels account for much to most of the “puzzle” of why consumer sentiment is lower than you would predict based on the historical relationship between CPI, unemployment, the cost of money and etc.

(Emphasis added.) See G. Elliott Morris, The mystery variable that explains stubbornly low consumer sentiment, Strength in Numbers, April 12, 2026.

There are many measures of economic performance, but American consumers have settled on inflation (rather than other measures like unemployment, interest rates, etc.). While there are relationships (of course) between all these measures, ordinary Americans have made high prices their high priority.

This focus on higher prices places a federal administration that is pushing higher tariffs and struggling to assure the resumption of tanker transit in the Persian Gulf in a notably weak position with consumers.

There’s a longstanding claim that Trump cheated to get into Wharton (from Trump’s own niece and aunt!). I’ve no idea about his conduct back then, but his grasp of economics is below that of an ordinary person. Here’s Trump contending that because it’s hard to get oil from the Persian Gulf, nations are sending their empty tankers to America and fill up on American oil:

“Massive numbers of completely empty oil tankers, some of the largest anywhere in the World, are heading, right now, to the United States to load up with the best and “sweetest” oil and gas anywhere in the World.” 

This libertarian blogger has no idea whether Trump’s lying yet again about current events, but anyone sensible can say what increased demand for a product in one place means during a shortage in a global market: higher prices for whatever is still available. Competition over scarce oil will drive up prices for domestic and foreign buyers. This is Trump telling people they’ll pay more for oil without expressly telling people they’ll pay more for oil.

Honest to goodness.

Upcoming posts (in no decided order): The Regents, Economic Demand, Trump on Daycare, Claims of Legacy, a Particular Species of Democrat, and a Whitewater Comparative Analysis.

Hawaiian volcano Kilauea erupts for the 44th time:

Lava poured from Kilauea on Thursday. It was the 44th time the Hawaiian volcano has erupted. The lava fountain reached a peak of 800 feet, according to the United States Geological Survey.

Daily Bread, Economy

Daily Bread for 4.11.26: Inflation Up, Consumer Confidence Down

by  • 

Good morning.

Saturday in Whitewater will be partly cloudy with a high of 55. Sunrise is 6:19 and sunset is 7:32 for 13 hours 13 minutes of daytime. The moon is a waning crescent with 37 percent of its visible disk illuminated.

On this day in 1945, American forces liberate the Buchenwald concentration camp:

A detachment of troops of the U.S. 9th Armored Infantry Battalion, from the 6th Armored Division, part of the U.S. Third Army, and under the command of Captain Frederic Keffer, arrived at Buchenwald on 11 April 1945 at 3:15 p.m. (now the permanent time of the clock at the entrance gate). The soldiers were given a hero’s welcome, with the emaciated survivors finding the strength to toss some liberators into the air in celebration.

A needless war comes at a cost, both moral and economic. Of the economic cost, one reads that consumer prices rose 3.3% in March:

Consumer prices spiked in March as the Iran war sent energy costs soaring and took the Federal Reserve further from its inflation target, according to a Bureau of Labor Statistics report Friday. Underlying inflation, however, was relatively tame.

The consumer price index increased a seasonally adjusted 0.9% for the month, putting the annual inflation rate at 3.3%, pushed by a 10.9% surge in energy costs. Both numbers were in line with the Dow Jones consensus. The annual rate was the highest since April 2024 and up from 2.4% in February.

See Jeff Cox, Consumer prices rose 3.3% in March, as energy prices spiked due to Iran conflict, CNBC, April 10, 2026.

Rising inflation understandably leads to falling consumer sentiment:

Consumer sentiment fell in April to the lowest level recorded in the 70-plus-year history of the University of Michigan’s survey, evidence of Americans’ concerns that the Iran war will hit the domestic economy.

The survey’s initial April reading came in at 47.6, versus 53.3 in March. Analysts polled by The Wall Street Journal were expecting a drop to 52. The April reading is below the previous low point of 50 recorded in June 2022, when the economy was facing searing inflation.

See Matt Grossman, Consumer sentiment hits record low, Michigan survey shows, Wall Street Journal, April 10, 2026.

Upcoming posts (in no decided order): The Regents, Economic Demand, Trump on Daycare, Claims of Legacy, a Particular Species of Democrat, and a Whitewater Comparative Analysis.

Watch how Artemis II returned to Earth:

Artemis II’s crew of four have emerged one-by-one from their lunar capsule Friday after a splashdown in the Pacific. The three Americans and one Canadian set a distance record for space travel during their lunar flyby, surpassing NASA’s Apollo 13.