Good morning.

Saturday in Whitewater will be partly sunny with a high of 55. Sunrise is 5:47 and sunset is 7:56 for 14 hours 9 minutes of daytime. The moon is a waning gibbous with 99.2 percent of its visible disk illuminated.
On this day in 1945, the U.S. 82nd Airborne Division liberates Wöbbelin concentration camp, finding 1,000 dead prisoners, most of whom starved to death.
One doesn’t have to be a Democrat (as I am not) and one doesn’t have to be a backer of Rep. Francesca Hong for governor (her candidacy would not be my first choice) to wonder about the sincerity of a leaked WISGOP consultants’ assessment talking up her candidacy. Jessie Opoien reports that
A leaked memo from consultants to U.S. Rep. Tom Tiffany’s campaign for governor gives voters a glimpse into how a Republican campaign sizes up its potential competition from the Democratic side.
In this case, Tiffany’s consultants were raising a warning about state Rep. Francesca Hong’s early momentum in the Democratic primary field and suggested a strategy for how to prepare for a general election contest against a candidate who identifies as a democratic socialist.
As a counter, Hong’s Democratic rivals have pointed to polling showing her as the only candidate losing in a hypothetical matchup with Tiffany.
[…]“We Need To Take Francesca Hong Seriously,” warns the subject line of the memo, prepared earlier this month by consultants Clinton Soffer and Chris Hansen.
They cited polling that shows Hong’s early strength. In a Marquette poll released March 24, Hong led the field with 14%, followed by former Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes at 11% and the rest of the field in single digits. But 65% were still undecided.
[…]The memo compares Hong to other potential Democratic candidates Tiffany could face in the Nov. 3 general election, viewing her as someone whose nomination “virtually guarantees elevated Democratic enthusiasm and turnout in Dane County and the Milwaukee media market, where statewide races are decided.”
See Jessie Opoien, What a leaked GOP memo says about the candidacy of Francesca Hong, Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, April 30, 2026.
No one should take this ‘leaked’ assessment, from consultants to an opposing party, about a single candidate, in a crowded field, at face value. That the reporting does so is embarrassingly credulous.


A ‘leaked’ memo makes it sound as though someone smuggled a document from an office late one night.
It’s more probable (although not certain) that a consultant hit send on his own Outlook message.
Polls show most Democrats are undecided, liberal candidates with politics other than Rep. Hong’s have done well in both Madison and Milwaukee (Susan Crawford, Chris Taylor), and there’s solid reason to think that disappointment with Trump will be the foundation of any Democrat’s chances. (Indeed, Opoien’s reporting notes that the clear majority of Democrats, themselves, are undecided yet her reporting relies on Republicans‘ views of Hong’s supposed popularity.)
It’s more plausible to think that the leaked memo talks up the candidate the Tiffany campaign least fears rather than the candidate it supposedly most fears.
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Upcoming posts (in no decided order): Claims of Legacy, a Particular Species of Democrat, a Whitewater Comparative Analysis, Whitewater’s Workforce, ‘What Ails, What Heals’ Reviewed, and Outcome Driven Argumentation.
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