FREE WHITEWATER

Daily Bread, Data Centers, David Crowley, Gubernatorial Race 2026, Legislation, Legislature, Tom Tiffany, Wisconsin

Daily Bread for 10.16.26: David Crowley’s Sensible, Evolving Position on Data Centers

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Good morning.

Friday in Whitewater will see scattered showers with a high of 54. Sunrise is 7:09 and sunset is 6:10 for 11 hours 1 minute of daylight. The moon is a waxing crescent with 31.2 percent of its visible disk illuminated.

On this day in 1780, the Great Hurricane of 1780 dissipates after its sixth day, killing between 20,000 and 24,000 residents of the Lesser Antilles.

This libertarian blogger has argued that local communities should decide for themselves whether to allow data centers in their towns. I’d not support a statewide moratorium. See FREE WHITEWATER posts on 1.13.26 concerning Wisconsin gubernatorial candidates’ views on data centers, on 1.14.26 about Microsoft’s view of Wisconsin data centers, and on 1.21.26 Assembly passage of limited data center regulations.

Gubernatorial candidate David Crowley has now pledged to repeal tax breaks for data centers. Crowley’s evolving position is sensible (and there’s no libertarian position that data centers deserve tax breaks):

Democratic gubernatorial candidate and Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley said he would sign a bill to repeal tax incentives for data centers if he’s elected, marking a change in his position on the issue.

Gov. Tony Evers and Wisconsin Republicans approved a provision during the 2023 state budget that exempts data center developers from paying sales and use taxes for the “sale of property and equipment to construct, renovate or operate data centers.” The policy is estimated to have already saved data center developers $1.5 billion. 

However, as data centers have become increasingly unpopular, Democrats and Republicans alike have changed their minds on providing these subsidies. 

A group of Republican lawmakers, some of whom voted for the budget that created the tax subsidies in 2023, introduced a bill earlier this month that would repeal the tax breaks, though the bill won’t go anywhere as the Legislature is out of session.

Crowley said he would “absolutely” sign that bill to repeal the tax subsidies if it were sent to him as governor during an event at the Overture Center on Wednesday evening.

“The fact that these tech companies are getting a billion dollars in tax breaks — it’s being delivered on the backs of hard-working families,” Crowley said. “I want to be very clear about my position. We’re going to be aggressive when it comes down to holding data centers to account, making sure that we protect our land, protect our water, have strict environmental standards, but also communities need to have a seat at the table.”

See Baylor Spears, Crowley says he would repeal data center tax subsidies, regulate AI and social media, Wisconsin Examiner, October 16, 2026.

(Obvious point and understatement: Regulation of AI or social media isn’t a position I’d readily take, and there are compelling constitutional objections to speech-related government regulations.)

Of data center tax breaks, however, there was never a good reason to extend those breaks to major corporate developers who have been able either to self-fund their projects or (as is far more likely) to find private backing.

If Tom Tiffany now finds these tax breaks objectionable, he needn’t look to David Crowley’s former position. Tiffany should begin his criticism with the many members of his own party in the Legislature who voted in favor of those tax breaks.

Aaron Sorkin on Mark Zuckerberg and ‘The Social Reckoning’ | Anatomy of a Scene:

What has Facebook wrought? That’s a central question in “The Social Reckoning,” the sort-of sequel to the 2010 drama “The Social Network.” The new film covers how the company’s growth ultimately opened the door to the spreading of misinformation on platforms owned by Meta.

One part of the movie follows a Wall Street Journal reporter (Jeremy Allen White), who works with a Facebook whistle-blower (Mikey Madison) to investigate the company. The other part takes place on a single day, when the Facebook chief executive, Mark Zuckerberg, is preparing for congressional hearings.

In this scene, Zuckerberg (Jeremy Strong) is taking part in a mock hearing, working, sometimes begrudgingly, with a crisis public relations strategist named Raya (Wunmi Mosaku), who is coaching him on his answers. Also in the room is one of Zuckerberg’s antagonists, Charlie (Bill Burr), a former colleague who has since written a critical op-ed accusing Facebook of inadequate guardrails.

Discussing his film in an interview, the writer and director Aaron Sorkin said, “I didn’t want to make this about every Facebook issue that there is. I think if you make it about everything, it’s sort of the same as making it about nothing.”

He continued, “So I concentrated on two things: The fact that Facebook won’t fact-check political ads, and the change they made in their algorithm, without telling any of us, that is now feeding you content purposely to make you angry, because they know that that’s what you’re most likely to reshare.”

Business, Cats, Good Ideas

Friday Catblogging: Advancing from Bodegas to Hardware Stores

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Hardware stores are learning what bodegas have known for years: cats bring patronage. More than defenders against rodents, felines are attractors of customers:

Daniel, a team member at Shoppers True Value Hardware, sleeps on the job, leaves food lying around and lets his co-workers clean up after him.

But the hardware store’s father-daughter owners, Thomas Simpson and Jessica Simpson, let him slide. That’s because many customers come into their South Portland, Maine, store specifically to see Daniel, and while they’re there, they buy something. Daniel has become such a draw that the store introduced Daniel-branded merchandise, including stickers that say, “I enjoy romantic walks to the hardware store to see Daniel.”

Not bad for a cat.

Like the Simpsons, many hardware-store owners have long adopted a kitty or two at their shops to help keep mice out of the bird feed and grass seed. But increasingly, they are discovering that the cats are more than just mousers. Customers—and their children—bond with the cats, who become beloved fixtures in the stores and inspire people to keep coming back. Many social-media-savvy stores feature their cats in online marketing to create buzz and build their customer base.

“People come in from all over the world just to see them,” says Shoppers True Value manager Lauren Springer of Daniel, who wears a bow tie, and the store’s other cat, an orange tabby named Bigfoot, who wears a necktie.”

See Beth DeCarbo, Hardware Stores Have a Secret Weapon for Wooing Customers (‘Once hired purely for pest control, feline ‘employees’ star on billboards, merchandise and social media to drive foot traffic and sales’), Wall Street Journal, October 12, 2026.

Daily Bread, Gubernatorial Race 2026, Tom Tiffany, Wisconsin

Daily Bread for 10.15.26: Any Port in a Storm

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Good morning.

Thursday in Whitewater will be rainy with a high of 59. Sunrise is 7:08 and sunset is 6:12 for 11 hours 4 minutes of daylight. The moon is a waxing crescent with 23 percent of its visible disk illuminated.

Whitewater’s Community Development Authority meets at 5:30 PM.

On this day in 1815, Napoleon begins his exile on Saint Helena in the South Atlantic Ocean.

We’ve only a few weeks to go, and U.S. Rep. Tom Tiffany seeks any ally, and any port from the storm, he can find:

Tiffany told the Examiner there was no “greater icon in Wisconsin” than Favre and he was glad he [Favre] could be there to speak on voting and hunting issues. He expressed no concern when asked how his campaign’s accountability and anti-fraud agenda matches up with Favre’s entanglement in a fraud scandal in Mississippi. Favre has repaid the state of Mississippi over $1 million for speeches he was paid for but didn’t deliver, and he is still a defendant in a civil case filed by the Mississippi Department of Human Services to recoup millions of dollars in misspent federal Temporary Assistance for Needy Families welfare funds, some of which he allegedly used to build a volleyball stadium.

Clever, very clever: Who better to support Tiffany’s anti-fraud agenda than a defendant intimately familiar with accusations of fraud?

There’s a key tell in Favre’s remarks:

Former Green Bay Packers quarterback Brett Favre spent the majority of his time on stage in Waukesha on Tuesday night talking about his time playing football. But when the conversation turned to the election, Favre was blunt about what he would say to hunters, Christians, veterans, farmers, factory workers, truck drivers and school teachers who aren’t planning to vote.

“You can’t sit it out. You can’t sit it out,” Favre, a Mississippi native, said. “You can’t bitch if you don’t vote.”

The Tiffany campaign is worried about turnout; Favre’s remarks to people in the room are directed at those who aren’t in the room. More pointedly, Favre is demographically (and theologically) ignorant — one can be a hunter, Christian, veteran, farmer, factory worker, truck driver, or school teacher and vote for David Crowley.

One other moment from the Tiffany-Favre rally stands out:

The event also featured…an auction of a Ted Nugent guitar signed by Favre — claimed by the only person who bid at the starting bid of $5,000…

A bid that stops where it starts is hardly an auspicious place to end.

See Baylor Spears, Republican Tom Tiffany seeks to boost turnout in Waukesha with an assist from Brett Favre, Wisconsin Examiner, October 15, 2026.

So, at Halloween or any other time, how do bats land upside down?

Bats have the heaviest wings, relative to overall body weight, of any flying animal. So it’s long been a puzzle as to how they manage to maneuver so easily in tight spaces, quickly flipping over and coming to rest with their heads pointing downward. Researchers have analyzed the high-speed footage shown in this video and determined that bats use inertia to pull off these aerial acrobatics. Much like figure skaters who use this force to spin faster by bringing their arms closer to their body, bats use inertia at the moment of flipping over, pulling one wing closer to their body while the other is fully extended.

America, City, Daily Bread, Economics, Economy, Wisconsin

Daily Bread for 10.14.26: Recklessly Misplaced Economic Trust

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Good morning.

Wednesday in Whitewater will be cloudy with a high of 65. Sunrise is 7:07 and sunset is 6:16 for 11 hours 9 minutes of daylight. The moon is a waxing crescent with 15.2 percent of its visible disk illuminated.

Whitewater’s Finance Committee meets at 5 PM.

On this day in 1774, the First Continental Congress denounces the British Parliament’s Intolerable Acts and demands British concessions.

See now how reckless are those who placed their trust in a second-generation real estate man, his operatives, catspaws, and hangers-on:

The Consumer Price Index Report, released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Wednesday, showed overall prices rose 0.6 percent, the largest monthly increase in five months. Compared with the same time last year, prices were 3.7 percent higher.

The bulk of the increase stemmed directly from energy prices, which have shot higher this year because of the war with Iran. Gasoline prices, which in late September rose to the highest level in four months at nearly $4.50 a gallon, surged 9.1 percent for the month. That accounted for more than half of the overall monthly increase in prices. They are up 34.2 percent over the past year.

Fuel oil prices, used for heating in many homes in the northeast, have also shot higher, rising 15.3 percent in September, or 74.2 percent on an annual basis.

Worse, the rate of inflation is accelerating:

The rate of inflation over the past 3 months — which economists use to gauge the recent momentum of prices — spiked to 3.4 percent on [an] annualized basis, way up from the mild 2 percent rate in August.

See Colby Smith and Talmon Joseph Smith, Soaring Energy Prices Push Inflation Higher, New York Times, October 14, 2026.

It’s almost as though support for these self-professed dealmakers wasn’t about dealmaking at all. Come for the false economic understanding, stay for the culture war…

Judge orders Trump administration to halt tree cutting at Washington golf course:

Federal judge Ana Reyes issued a temporary restraining order on 13 October to pause tree-cutting at the East Potomac Golf Course until 26 October.

America, City, Daily Bread, Economics, Economy, Wisconsin

Daily Bread for 10.13.26: A Federal Reserve Official’s Economic Outlook

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Good morning.

Tuesday in Whitewater will be sunny with a high of 75. Sunrise is 7:06 and sunset is 6:15 for 11 hours 9 minutes of daylight. The moon is a waxing crescent with 8.8 percent of its visible disk illuminated.

The Whitewater Schools’ Business, Operations & Finance Committee meets at 4:45 PM. Whitewater’s Ethics Board meets at 5 PM, the Public Works Committee at 5 PM, and the Police and Fire Commission at 6 PM.

On this day in 1903, the Boston Red Sox win the first modern World Series, defeating the Pittsburgh Pirates in the eighth game.

An overflow crowd at the Huntington Avenue Grounds in Boston prior to Game 3, Public Domain, Link.

Yesterday, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Beth Hammack delivered remarks to a meeting of the National Association of Business Economics. (Hammack is not on the Federal Reserve’s Board of Governors; she is president and chief executive officer of the Cleveland Fed — one of twelve regional banks — and, this year, also a voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee.)

Here’s her studied assessment of the American economy:

So, with that framework [how monetary policy should react to economic fundamentals to reach designated economic goals], here’s how these inputs read to me right now and how I expect the weather to develop. I’ll start with inflation, because it’s where the wind has been blowing hardest against us.

Inflation is elevated compared with our 2 percent objective. Headline PCE inflation was 3.4 percent in August this year, and core PCE was 3 percent. Both readings are above year-earlier levels, when headline was 2.7 percent and core was 2.9 percent. That’s not a stray gust; it’s a headwind that’s been with us for a while.

I see inflation pressures as relatively broad-based rather than concentrated in one component. Energy has been making headlines this year, with prices rising for oil, retail gasoline, and diesel, but it isn’t the whole story.

Higher tariff rates have been pushing up costs on the supply side. While a one-time increase in tariff rates could potentially be viewed as a one-time increase in the price level, multiple waves of tariff rate increases have resulted in a series of cost shocks.

And it’s not just the supply side. Demand-side pressures coming from the AI buildout are raising prices on key computer, electronic, and high-tech components. This is raising costs for data centers, yes, but also for projects that use similar components in aviation, electricity production, and construction.

When I talk with contacts across the District, I hear about additional cost pressures in health insurance, plastics, metals, grains, electricity, and other areas. Price pressures are also showing up in core services inflation excluding housing, a category that shouldn’t be especially exposed to tariffs or energy.

Trend inflation measures point in the same direction. Cleveland Fed researchers estimate that once the median and trimmed-mean inflation measures are adjusted to account for changes in skewness, trend inflation sits in the mid to high 2 percent range, in line with other statistical measures of trend inflation.

Because of the breadth of inflationary pressures, my baseline forecast is that it will take some time for inflation to return to 2 percent, even with appropriate monetary policy. A leveling off or decline in energy prices would certainly help move inflation in the right direction, but the demand-side pressures are not self-correcting. They are likely to be more persistent and usually require a more restrictive policy to [rein] them in.

See Beth M. Hammack, Trimming the Sails: Communicating My Reaction Function, Remarks at the 68th NABE Annual Meeting, October 12, 2026.

And so, and so: Inflation is elevated, it’s relatively broad-based rather than concentrated in one component, there are additional cost pressures in health insurance, plastics, metals, grains, electricity, and other areas, demand-side pressures are not self-correcting, and are likely to be more persistent and usually require a more restrictive policy.

So to whom should we listen now? It wasn’t long ago that partisans in this city were putting up yard signs about the last presidential election. This libertarian blogger remembers them well — those partisans were ludicrously ignorant then and have proved to be more so now.

Then or now, there was no insight to be had in listening to men who’d struggle to fill even a Post-it® note with their economic understanding.

No thank you. So much better to read and accept the guidance of knowledgeable officials like Hammack, who now face the unfortunate task of managing the American economy to recover from the damage done to it.

Thieves steal 30,000 bottles of Italy’s most prized wines worth $5.8 million:

Thieves stole around 30,000 bottles of Italy’s finest wines, worth €5 million ($5.8 million), from a historic winery in Tuscany in what the producer has described as the country’s largest wine heist on record. The gang targeted prized Solaia, Tignanello and Guado al Tasso wines from Marchesi Antinori, using two trucks to transport the bottles in a carefully planned overnight operation.

Daily Bread, Economics, Economy, Energy, Wisconsin

Daily Bread for 10.12.26: So, How’s That Diesel Deal with Russia Holding Up?

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Good morning.

Monday in Whitewater will be partly sunny with a high of 85. Sunrise is 7:04 and sunset is 6:17 for 11 hours 13 minutes of daylight. The moon is a waxing crescent with 4.1 percent of its visible disk illuminated.

Whitewater’s Finance Committee meets at 4:30 PM and the Planning and Architectural Commission at 6 PM.

On this day in 1983, Japan’s former prime minister Kakuei Tanaka is found guilty of taking a $2 million bribe from the Lockheed Corporation and is sentenced to four years in jail. (Tanaka remained free on appeal until his death in 1993.)

It’s Monday, October 12. Looking at a calendar, that’s a mere three days after Friday, October 9. How is Donald Trump’s diesel deal with Vladimir Putin faring?

First, as economics: The deal is too small to move markets meaningfully:

“It’s kind of shuffling deck chairs on the Titanic,” said Michael Lynch, distinguished fellow at Energy Policy Research Foundation, a nonpartisan research institution focused on energy and economics.

“If we get diesel from Russia, basically it means that their existing customers are not going to get it and they’ll have to go somewhere else, and that will keep the price basically where it is now,” Lynch said.

And while the White House may be counting on this move to give some relief at the pump for U.S. truckers, ranchers and farmers who have been hit hard by rising diesel prices, that’s not a given.

“The best you could hope for is a tiny dip in prices locally in places like the New York-New Jersey area, Philadelphia maybe,” Lynch said. “It just means that the oil is just going to be shuffled around and it’s not really going to change the price globally or across the U.S.”

See Alex Veiga, Boosting US oil supplies with Russian diesel unlikely to have much impact on prices, experts say, Associated Press, October 9, 2026.

Second, as diplomacy: A man who describes himself as an exceptional dealmaker claims to have reached a deal about which one of the parties was wholly unaware:

Donald Trump has announced an energy ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia, apparently without consulting Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who said the deal to stop long-range attacks was “news to me”.

In a social media post, the US president claimed the two sides had reached an agreement. “Effective immediately, there is an ENERGY CEASEFIRE in the War between Russia and Ukraine. Both parties have agreed. Do not break it!” he wrote on Truth Social.

He offered no further details. Zelenskyy said he was surprised by the announcement but would agree to it if Vladimir Putin did the same. “If President Trump negotiated it with Putin – please tell us when the ceasefire begins. We are ready and we will accept it,” the Ukrainian president told the Axios website.

See Luke Harding, Trump announces partial ceasefire in Ukraine war as Zelenskyy says deal is ‘news to me,’ The Guardian, October 11, 2026.

And so, of course, it turns out there was no genuine deal at all. See Samya Kullab, Zelenskyy says Russia strikes energy facilities despite Trump claim of an energy ceasefire, Associated Press, October 12, 2026.

(Locally, if someone declares that this libertarian blogger has come to a deal with nativists, landlord oligopolists, lobbyists, or MAGA men, I would at least hope that that person would let me know about it.)

Third, Wisconsin needs diesel, not sham deals about diesel:

Mike Semmann, president of the Wisconsin Grocers Association, said the price of diesel will have an impact on many different parts of the grocery supply chain. 

“Diesel is to the economy what electricity is to a home,” he said. “For Wisconsin consumers, it’s not just about what diesel costs, but about how businesses across the state are really trying to work to keep those costs from becoming a burden on Wisconsin families.”

He said diesel costs affect every part of the supply chain, and grocery stores pay special attention to diesel prices as part of their overall costs.

“Diesel helps move milk to and from farms, ingredients to processors, products to stores and goods to consumers,” Semmann said. 

See Elissa Eaton, Record high diesel prices likely to drive up cost of groceries, other goods, Wisconsin Public Radio, September 17, 2026.

How ’bout something of a palate cleanser, replacing the latest news of federal economic ignorance and incompetence with scientific and photographic achievement:

The captivating shapes of wind-carved crags called yardangs are revealed in this zoomed-in crop of a broader panorama captured by NASA’s Curiosity Mars rover on Aug. 11, 2026. Scientists are eager to learn more about how the yardang layer formed.
NASA/JPL-Caltech/MSSS

Animals, Birds, Daily Bread, Fall, Nature, Wisconsin

Daily Bread for 10.11.26: Migration

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Good morning.

Sunday in Whitewater will be sunny with a high of 78. Sunrise is 7:03 and sunset is 6:18 for 11 hours 15 minutes of daylight. The moon is a waxing crescent with 1.2 percent of its visible disk illuminated.

On this day in 1910, piloted by Arch Hoxsey, Theodore Roosevelt becomes the first U.S. president to fly in an airplane.

As this Whitewater resident has argued many times — and been right each of those times — Fall is the Most Beautiful Season™. Part of that beauty comes from temporary, bittersweet farewells — seeing one’s children off to school, seeing one’s children off to college. One hopes for the best for those one loves. Even the natural world has a prior version of our fall customs when bird species migrate from Wisconsin for milder winter climes. Part of fall and winter’s beauty is the hopeful waiting for a return of people, and to a on obviously lesser extent, even animals.

Migration is underway:

One waits patiently and hopefully for the return of children one loves, and of the diversity nature supplies.

Astrophotographer Captures the Messier Catalogue:

Daily Bread, Economics, Economy, Wisconsin

Daily Bread for 10.10.26: Understandably, Consumer Confidence Falls Yet Again

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Good morning.

Saturday in Whitewater will be sunny with a high of 79. Sunrise is 7:02 and sunset is 6:20 for 11 hours 18 minutes of daylight. The moon is new this morning with none of its visible disk illuminated.

On this day in 1973, U.S. Vice President Spiro Agnew resigns after being charged with evasion of federal income tax.

The University of Michigan’s longstanding and respected survey of consumers’ sentiments reports yet again a monthly decline in consumers’ confidence:

The University of Michigan’s Surveys of Consumers was the latest in a series of recent polls to capture the darkening mood among Americans, who are being squeezed by high inflation and borrowing costs. Trump’s approval rating is at the lowest of his political career amid angst over his handling of the economy.

[…]

The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index dropped to 46.3 this month from 48.1 in September. The third straight monthly decline pushed sentiment close to a record low plumbed in May. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the index at 47.8.

[…]

The Surveys of Consumers’ measure of consumer expectations for inflation over the next year nudged up to 4.7% from 4.6% in September. Twelve-month inflation expectations have surged from 3.4% in February before the US-Israeli war with Iran started.

Consumers’ expectations for inflation over the next five years rose to 3.5% from 3.4% in September.

See Lucia Mutikani, US consumer sentiment near record low as frustration over economy mounts, Reuters, October 9, 2026.

Consumers recognize adverse conditions when they encounter them. In the same way, one can see a desperate, scrambling economic policy when it presents itself. Trump’s latest effort to reduce soaring diesel prices — a deal with Vladimir Putin — is unlikely to lower prices meaningfully, especially for the Midwest:

Energy policy experts on Friday expressed doubts that a boost in diesel supply from Russia will have a significant impact on oil prices, whether in the U.S. or globally.

“It’s kind of shuffling deck chairs on the Titanic,” said Michael Lynch, distinguished fellow at Energy Policy Research Foundation, a nonpartisan research institution focused on energy and economics.

“If we get diesel from Russia, basically it means that their existing customers are not going to get it and they’ll have to go somewhere else, and that will keep the price basically where it is now,” Lynch said.

And while the White House may be counting on this move to give some relief at the pump for U.S. truckers, ranchers and farmers who have been hit hard by rising diesel prices, that’s not a given.

“The best you could hope for is a tiny dip in prices locally in places like the New York-New Jersey area, Philadelphia maybe,” Lynch said. “It just means that the oil is just going to be shuffled around and it’s not really going to change the price globally or across the U.S.”

See Alex Veiga, Boosting US oil supplies with Russian diesel unlikely to have much impact on prices, experts say, Associated Press, October 9, 2026.

Of course. As with selling red-dye diesel, these are drop-in-the-bucket responses to a market shortage. Note to those who might be supporters of MAGA economics: ‘a drop in the bucket’ means a tiny quantity in a much larger container. (On allowing the sale of red-dye diesel as a futile effort to reduce diesel prices, see Keith Johnson, Trump’s red-dye diesel plan has a major flaw, Foreign Policy, October 6, 2026.)

Another narcissistic complaint from a man who can’t manage basic national policy — Trump veers into Nobel Prize grievances during upstate New York rally:

President Donald Trump lashed out at the Norwegian Nobel Committee during a rally in Syracuse, New York, after being passed over for the Nobel Peace Prize. He argued that he deserved the award for his claimed diplomatic achievements, calling the decision “an indelible stain on the country of Norway.”

Daily Bread, Gubernatorial Race 2026, Tom Tiffany, Trump, Wisconsin, WISGOP

Daily Bread for 10.9.26: Three Billionaires Fill Tom Tiffany’s Campaign War Chest

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Good morning.

Friday in Whitewater will see scattered afternoon showers with a high of 70. Sunrise is 7:01 and sunset is 6:22 for 11 hours 21 minutes of daylight. The moon is a waning crescent with 1.4 percent of its visible disk illuminated.

A false-color composite (CXO/HST/Spitzer Space Telescope) image of the supernova remnant nebula from SN 1604. Public Domain, Link.

On this day in 1604, Kepler’s Supernova is first observed within the Milky Way. It remains the most recent supernova observed with certainty within the Milky Way:

Visible to the naked eye, Kepler’s Star was brighter at its peak than any other star in the night sky, with an apparent magnitude of -2.5. It was visible during the day for over three weeks. Records of its sighting exist in European, Chinese, Korean, and Arabic sources.

It was the second supernova to be observed in a generation (after SN 1572 seen by Tycho Brahe in Cassiopeia). No further supernovae have since been observed with certainty in the Milky Way, though many others outside the galaxy have been seen since S Andromedae in 1885. SN 1987A in the Large Magellanic Cloud was visible to the naked eye at night.

It’s lawful, but perhaps telling, that WISGOP gubernatorial candidate Tom Tiffany’s campaign funds disproportionately come from only three people. Did Tom Tiffany receive more than 90% of his campaign donations from 3 billionaires since July 2026?:

Yes.

Tom Tiffany, the Republican candidate for Wisconsin governor, received more than 90% in campaign contributions from three billionaires – Diane Hendricks, Richard Uihlein and Elizabeth Uihlein – for the reporting period of July to September 2026. 

Tiffany’s campaign fund received more than $26 million, and $24 million, or 93%, came from the Republican Party of Wisconsin. The party received $27 million of its $29 million from the Uihleins and Hendricks in that period. 

Individuals can donate up to $20,000 to a campaign, but can give unlimited amounts to a party, which can then contribute unlimited amounts to a campaign.  

See Eva Wen, Did Tom Tiffany receive more than 90% of his campaign donations from 3 billionaires since July 2026?, Wisconsin Watch, October 9, 2026.

What should one make of this? First, it’s lawful: Tiffany’s done nothing wrong in this regard. Three fat cats gave to the WISGOP, and the WISGOP gave to Tiffany.

Second, Tiffany could win this race. He’s slightly behind in the few reputable, published polls on our governor’s race. (We have fewer polls than in larger states or states with flamboyant candidates who have drawn more attention.)

Third, and this should surprise no one, Tiffany is a bland choice reflecting typical WISGOP positions. He doesn’t have a significant proportion of small donors because he’s not the sort of candidate who attracts small donors. (If anyone voted for Tiffany in the primary thinking he was that sort of candidate, then those voters are profoundly confused.) In fairness to Tiffany, that’s not his campaign, that’s not his manner, that’s not his outlook. He’s a backbench congressman running for governor with Donald Trump’s endorsement. If that endorsement had gone to someone else, it’s improbable Tiffany would have been the WISGOP nominee.

Tiffany’s whole campaign has been advanced through the endorsements or contributions of a few billionaires in the primary or general election. He wouldn’t be on this stage otherwise.

One can be sure that he’ll have his dependency on those very few in mind if he should become governor.

Navi Pillay awarded Nobel Peace Prize for advancing international justice:

The South African-born jurist and former U.N. human rights chief Navi Pillay, who is currently an ad hoc judge at the International Court of Justice, won the Nobel Peace Prize on Friday for her efforts to promote peace and international law. Pillay’s work “is a source of hope and inspiration to all those who seek to bring about a more peaceful world,” said Jørgen Watne Frydnes, Chair of the Norwegian Nobel Committee, in announcing her win in Oslo, Norway.

Daily Bread, Economics, Economy, Tariffs, Trade, Trump, Wisconsin

Daily Bread for 10.8.26: What Everyone Except One Ignorant Man and His Enablers Knew — Americans Pay the Tariffs

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Good morning.

Thursday in Whitewater will be partly sunny with a high of 70. Sunrise is 6:59 and sunset is 6:25 for 11 hours 26 minutes of daylight. The moon is a waning crescent with 10.6 percent of its visible disk illuminated.

Whitewater’s Downtown Whitewater Activation Initiative holds an open house at 8:30 AM.

On this day in 1862, Union forces successfully halt the Confederate invasion of Kentucky after the Battle of Perryville.

Earlier this year, Donald J. Trump, having lived his whole life off an inherited real estate business from his father, declared of tariffs that “I believe the tariffs, paid for by foreign countries, will, like in the past, substantially replace the modern-day system of income tax, taking a great financial burden off” Americans. See Address Before a Joint Session of Congress on the State of the Union, Feb. 24, 2026, transcript reproduced in PBS NewsHour.

No and no again. On the contrary, these many burdensome tariffs that Trump has imposed are paid by Americans, whether businesses or consumers. Economists at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and Columbia University recently published an important study estimating how tariffs truly affect consumer prices. Tariffs raise consumer prices:

A tariff raises the price a U.S. importer (which could be a firm or a consumer) pays for a foreign good, unless the foreign exporter cuts its price to absorb some of the cost. In a previous post, we found that foreign exporters lowered their prices very little, so that nearly 90 percent of the 2025 tariffs were passed through to U.S. import prices. We find the same result here using data through February 2026. The effect is immediate: import prices rise almost one for one with tariffs in the first month after a tariff is raised. Our conclusion is unchanged when we account for exchange-rate movements: the dollar depreciated over this period, which also raised import prices, but we still estimate a tariff pass-through of around 90 percent.

[…]

Our estimates attribute this increase [in consumer goods prices] to the tariffs: by February 2026, tariffs had contributed 2.9 percentage points to goods price inflation, and without them goods prices would have fallen slightly.

Tariffs Raised Consumer Goods Price Inflation

Line chart tracking the actual change in consumer prices for the goods in the authors’ sample (solid red) and the authors’ estimate of the contribution of tariffs (dashed blue) in percentage (vertical axis) from 2022 to 2026 (horizontal axis); the authors estimate that by February 2026, tariffs had contributed 2.9 percentage points to goods’ price inflation, and without them, goods’ prices would have fallen slightly.
Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; U.S. Census Bureau, Foreign Trade Statistics; U.S. International Trade Commission (USITC); U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis; authors’ calculations.
Notes: The solid line is the twelve-month change in consumer prices for the sixty-seven non-oil goods categories in our sample, weighted by 2022 consumer expenditure. The dashed line subtracts our estimate of the contribution of tariffs, shown by the shaded area. The estimates compare goods that were more exposed to tariffs with goods that were less exposed, holding economy-wide factors fixed.

(Emphasis added.) See Mary Amiti, Sebastian Heise, and David E. Weinstein, How Fast Do Tariffs Pass Through into Consumer Prices?, Liberty St. Econ., October 6, 2026.

Consumer goods price inflation was falling quickly in 2023 and 2024, but began to rise (to a level now higher than in 2024) after Trump’s so-called “Liberation Day” imposition of tariffs.

Launching an ill-considered, ill-planned war in the Persian Gulf has done nothing to improve our economy. It has, however, done much to weaken Wisconsin’s economy. See FREE WHITEWATER, Wisconsin, Dependent on Canadian Trade, Braces for More Tariffs and Wisconsin’s Economy Depends on Diesel (and Now Diesel Costs Much More).

‘I hadn’t heard about a hurricane,’ Trump says on plans to watch Georgia-Alabama game:

Forecasts have the storm menacing the Gulf Coast. That might affect Alabama in coming days.

Daily Bread, Economics, Economy, Energy, Free Markets, Trump, War, Wisconsin

Daily Bread for 10.7.26: A War Brought Us Here. An Executive Order Won’t Get Us Out.

by  • 

Good morning.

Wednesday in Whitewater will be sunny with a high of 77. Sunrise is 6:59 and sunset is 6:25 for 11 hours 26 minutes of daylight. The moon is a waning crescent with 10.6 percent of its visible disk illuminated.

Whitewater’s Lakes Advisory Committee meets at 4 PM and the Landmarks Commission at 6 PM.

On this day in 1777, Americans defeat British forces under General John Burgoyne in the Second Battle of Saratoga, compelling Burgoyne’s eventual surrender.

Diesel fuel is inordinately expensive, with the reckless and feckless war against Iran having pushed fuel costs higher. See FREE WHITEWATER, Wisconsin’s Economy Depends on Diesel (and Now Diesel Costs Much More), September 18, 2026.

Does the man who started this war in February have a solution in October? No, he does not.

Instead, he has a futility wrapped in an executive order:

The Trump administration, growing increasingly fretful of high fuel prices just a month before the U.S. midterm elections, issued late Monday a novel executive order meant to make diesel fuel a little cheaper for beleaguered truckers and farmers. It almost certainly won’t help.

U.S. President Donald Trump authorized the deferral, through the end of the year, of federal taxes on diesel fuel used to power vehicles on roads and highways. (That tax revenue, like the gasoline tax, helps pay for highway maintenance.) His solution is to temporarily legalize the use of so-called red-dye diesel—a tax-free diesel flavor normally earmarked for off-road uses such as agriculture, mining, and logging—for use by truckers.

[…]

But there are a lot of problems with the hail-mary measure. For starters, it is only a deferral of those federal fuel taxes, not an outright suspension. Unless Congress passes legislation, at some point those deferred taxes will come due, which simply means storing up bigger bills and bigger accounting headaches for truckers down the road. 

“It’s one thing to waive a tax and another thing to simply defer it. This just looks like a mess, but then again, it’s all a circus,” said Tom Kloza, the chief energy advisor at Gulf Oil and a four-decade veteran of petroleum product markets.

More importantly, while the measure could, if taken up by both sellers and buyers of red-dye diesel, slightly lower prices for some highway users, it won’t add any supplies to a very tight market. The reason U.S. diesel prices are high is because supplies of diesel are strained, and there is little relief on the horizon. U.S. refiners can’t produce any more than they already are, and other global exporters have voluntarily or involuntarily curbed their own supplies.

“This doesn’t move the needle in any way on diesel availability,” Kloza said.

See Keith Johnson, Trump’s red-dye diesel plan has a major flaw, Foreign Policy, October 6, 2026.

Economic ignorance isn’t the stuff of victory — it’s the stuff of otherwise foreseeable consequences regrettably ignored.

James Webb Space Telescope Reveals Cosmic ‘Technicolor Dreamscape’:

Take a close look at NGC 7129, a spectacular stellar nursery about 3,300 light-years from Earth, in this stunning image from NASA’s James Webb Space Telescope that has been described as a “technicolor dreamscape” by the European Space Agency (ESA). Webb’s infrared views reveal dense clouds of gas and dust, revealing stars and protostars at different stages of formation. The bright central star LkH 234 is surrounded by a massive cavity carved into the molecular cloud by powerful outflows, while younger protostars hidden in the dusty region to the right are blasting out streams of superheated material.

Daily Bread, Economics, Economy, Free Markets, Trade, Trump

Daily Bread for 10.6.26: Markets Confound Donald J. Trump Yet Again

by  • 

Good morning.

Tuesday in Whitewater will be sunny with a high of 73. Sunrise is 6:57 and sunset is 6:27 for 11 hours 30 minutes of daylight. The moon is a waning crescent with 18.8 percent of its visible disk illuminated.

The Whitewater Common Council meets at 6 PM.

On this day in 1927, The Jazz Singer, the first prominent “talkie” movie, opens.

In free trade between nations, a trade surplus or deficit, alone, tells us little about a nation’s economic health — what matters is why the balance exists and whether the underlying economic conditions are sound. In Donald J. Trump’s way of thinking, a trade deficit means that one nation (or one nation’s exporters) is somehow taking money wrongly or unfairly in exchange for supplying goods or services.

This is nonsense: When this libertarian blogger buys a ButterBurger® at Culver’s for cash, it is a fair exchange with Culver’s — I give them cash, and they give me a burger. We’re even. Buying more from someone than one sells to that person does not establish that one’s been cheated.

And so, and so, possessed of a misunderstanding of free trade, Trump has done his best to defy market forces, altering our trade with the world, and reducing commerce that he falsely believes is unfair. He’s failing in that effort (as in so many of his policies):

The U.S. trade deficit rose sharply in August to hit a 17-month high, driven by an increase in imports of petroleum, gold and chips used for artificial intelligence.

The trade deficit — a measure of the difference between what the country imports and what it exports — grew by 13.7 percent from the previous month to $105.6 billion, the largest monthly total since before Mr. Trump imposed his global tariffs in April of last year.

[…]

Imports grew 4.3 percent from the previous month, to a record $420.8 billion. U.S. exports grew 1.4 percent compared with July, hitting $315.2 billion. Because growth in imports outpaced that of exports, the trade deficit widened.

The Trump administration has tried to reduce the trade deficit, which President Trump views as a sign of America’s weak manufacturing sector, by imposing hefty tariffs on everything from toys and steel to drones and auto parts.

But in recent months, the metric has trended stubbornly upward, in part because of the A.I. boom. Companies are importing far more expensive computer chips, most of which are made in Asia, to construct new data centers.

Many economists have also questioned whether tariffs are a good tool for reducing the trade deficit. They argue that the metric is often driven by other macroeconomic forces, like economic growth or government debt.

See Ana Swanson, U.S. Trade Deficit Widens in August (‘New data from the Commerce Department showed that imports grew in the month, despite the Trump administration’s efforts to limit foreign products’), New York Times, October 6, 2026.

There has been a powerful economic basis for free trade for centuries, and a consensus in its favor for generations: Smith, An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations bk. IV, ch. II (1776) and Ricardo, On the Principles of Political Economy and Taxation ch. VII (1817).

What does one see? One aged real estate man, having inherited his position from his father, presuming to defy market forces of which he’s utterly ignorant.

Francis Halzen wins Nobel Prize in physics for work on ‘ghost particles’ called neutrinos:

University of Wisconsin–Madison Professor Francis Halzen has been named the 2026 Nobel laureate in physics. The Nobel Committee for Physics said Halzen’s work was instrumental to the construction of the IceCube Neutrino Observatory in Antarctica. Halzen helped pull the curtain back on a rare gang of neutrinos that scientists consider messengers from the cosmos, offering clues to how the universe evolved.